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The iPhone 11 will benefit from the Huawei P30’s woes, but it’s not all good news

The Apple iPhone 11 and Samsung Galaxy Note 10 could benefit from Huawei’s ongoing issues with the US government, according to research by Counterpoint.

Counterpoint made the claim in its latest Market Monitor Service for Q1 2019 report, where it suggested the ban could lead to a spike in interest in premium Apple and Samsung phones towards the end of the year, despite strong early sales of the Huawei P30 and Huawei P30 Pro.

“[Huawei] captured a double-digit share in the highly concentrated premium market. Impeccable camera quality, AI technology, and superior build quality of its flagship mate and P series drove the growth for Huawei during the quarter,” read the report.

“However, the trade ban imposed by the US will restrict its continued global growth […] Samsung and Apple are expected to gain from the gap created by Huawei in the future.”

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Huawei’s woes began in May when the US government issued an Executive Order forcing numerous companies to cut, or reduce ties with Huawei. The list includes Google, ARM, Intel and Microsoft.

The Google ban is particularly troublesome as it means future Huawei phones, like the rumoured Huawei Mate 30, will not have an Android license. Without an Android license the phones will not get software support from Google and be cut off from key services including the Play Store.

Image credit: Counterpoint

The forecast will be positive news for Apple which saw a 20% year-on-year decline in shipments of its iPhones in the first quarter of the year, according to Counterpoint. The report suggests Apple still controlled 47% of the global premium market despite the drop. Samsung came in second with a 25% share.

The forecast isn’t necessarily great news for Apple though. The report only refers to the top-end, post $400 of the market, where Apple is strong. Research from IDC’s Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker report suggested, while top end sales of the iPhone are strong, it’s struggling in the lower and mid-range segments.

Related: Best smartphone

The lower and mid-range market are listed by both research houses as the biggest growth area in mobile, so Apple’s current inability to compete there could spell trouble for it in the long-term.

The news follows ongoing rumours about Samsung’s next generation phablet, the Galaxy Note 10 and Apple’s 2019 flagship, the iPhone 11. The Galaxy Note 10 is expected to launch in September ahead of the IFA trade show in Berlin. The iPhone 11 is expected to arrive later in October and be the first phone running Apple’s new iOS 13 operating system.

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