I don't think the only advantage of TEGRA is the HD video capability (though it's pretty good anyways), the major advantage to my eyes in the much lower TDP then Intels offerings. And if TEGRA can offer similar performance (it was looking very snappy almost months ago), much better battery life and slimmer and smaller machines then I'd say they have a good chance. And since Nvidia's proof of concept was a phone, I doubt they'd have much trouble moving the platform into netbooks.
I have to say I've been looking forward to TEGRA for quite some time, it looked good months ago when it was announced and still does. So fingers crossed, this should do some good things for the mobile market.
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