I'm not sure the impact will be as big as you expect it to be. I've been living in Shanghai for 4 years and since the Iphone was launched in the US, I can see it everywhere. Which means that people who wanted one already got one (You don't need to search very hard). Besides, in China, not so many people have a contract with their carrier. It's hard to get it and the card system works and is so cheap that it doesn't push you to get one.
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